Currently, the number of Gists is about 7.3 millions, and from the following chart I made, it would hit 8 millions mark before the end of year and 10 millions mark in the first half of next year.

Note

Was this prediction correct? Read the update post for it and new prediction for 20 milltions Gists.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYSjmnJSFRH5pTXZw5e1B6G16vQmPuNxsNv_uJi_dQxRIV-bdV7L7nEtMDyKVUWP-A4XjjGjUGtYCCiBrKNT4IUv9lVqT6J35F48UHH8J6U6SzuriON-69uB7HbAQpRiFspFE_PeTDHJ0/s640/estimation%2520of%2520number%2520of%2520Gists.png

Generated by LibreOffice (download the ods file or view on Google Sheets)

The data points are:

date (UTC)Gists 
2008-07-151Blue
2008-07-1710 
2008-07-2199 
2008-07-221,000 
2008-09-1010,000 
2009-04-22100,000 
2011-05-311,000,000 
2012-03-082,000,009 
2012-06-263,000,001Green
2012-11-024,000,003 
2013-02-205,000,000 
2013-07-156,000,000 
2013-10-157,000,003 
2013-10-227,100,000 
2013-10-287,200,004 
2013-11-047,300,000 
2013-12-208,000,000Red / Estimations
2014-02-209,000,000 
2014-04-2510,000,000 

I collected the data via API, some Gists are gone, so I used the near ones. If you want to browse the Gists, there are links in the ods file or view them on Google Sheets.

The estimation was made purely by hand, more precisely, my monitor and one ruler, based on Gist IDs 7M, 7.1M, 7.2M, and 7.3M. They are not calculated by mathematics, I just slowly changed the date and made the line up alongside the ruler.

There is a trend line with green line data points, in exponential regression type, don’t take too serious about it since I know nothing about statistics. Just they look like a good match with my handmade estimation.

Anyway, I am pretty sure there would be No. 1,000,000 Gist next year.

In the beginning of 2012, it didn’t not even have 2,000,000, but it would be 8,000,000 in the end of 2013. It took almost three years to reach first 1,000,000. Now we are at rate of 3,000,000+ Gists per year.

I’m not sure how many spams are in these millions of Gists, but I sometimes see a few, all about sport scores, lots of pasted text. I think GitHub does notice a significant amount spams contributing the growth rate, that’s why they added Report Abuse.

Of course, most of Gists are legit, beside the configuration files, install-<foobar>.sh, occasionally some seasonal recipes1. I believe Gists may slow down in the last couple of mouths of the year, but turkeys and spices might show up to boost up the flavors.

Or Secret Santa Gists?

[1]Yes, some people do post cookery recipes to Gists, even on GitHub, taco anyone?