Back in almost the end of 2013, I blogged 10 millions Gists in 2014? and my prediction is correct if you don’t check the dates, which is nearly 20 days late.

Gist IDOriginalActual Creation Date
8,000,0002013-12-202013-12-17T04:24:20Z
9,000,0002014-02-202014-02-14T12:11:29Z
10,000,0002014-04-25 
10,000,002 2014-04-06T00:48:31Z

Since the title was only about year, I’d say I did that okay. Now, how about 20 millions? Using the last two data points, I have this equation:

T=2182711500001I+676546937879889500001

T is Unix timestamp and I is Gist ID. The prediction for 20 millions Gists:

Gist IDTimestampDate
20,000,00014403994362015-08-24T06:57:16Z

One thing worth to note, Gist ID in web page URL has been changed to hexadecimal digits in the last few month when I first noticed. But you can still use API with numerical ID to get the data for Gists created before some time around early May. I think after the change, you can only get those with hexadecimal ID.

I tried to find an announcement of such change, but I couldn’t find any.